The Flash, Warner Bros. and DC’s highly anticipated superhero film, has experienced a catastrophic decline at the box office. After a disappointing opening weekend, the movie plummeted 72.5% in its second weekend, marking the second-worst decline ever for a Hollywood superhero film domestically. This rejection by moviegoers has shattered any hopes of the film’s recovery.
Previously, The Flash was expected to be a major player at the box office, with predictions of surpassing $500 million or even $600 million globally. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav even claimed in April that the film was the best superhero movie he had ever seen, raising expectations even higher. However, the film has failed to meet these lofty projections.
The Flash wasn’t the only major disappointment in late June. Pixar’s animated film Elemental also had a lackluster opening weekend, earning only $29.6 million, the lowest debut in the history of the studio when adjusting for inflation. While Elemental has a chance to make up some ground, the mid-summer turbulence raises concerns that revenue for the season may not reach the pre-pandemic levels of $4 billion as initially predicted.
This underperformance puts additional pressure on a series of upcoming Hollywood tentpole films in July. Films like Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One, Oppenheimer, and Barbie are expected to deliver strong performances at the box office. However, industry insiders are cautious, as 15% of moviegoers have yet to return to theaters post-pandemic, partially due to the rise of streaming services and financial concerns.
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The hope for Hollywood is that this summer will narrow the gap and entice audiences back to theaters. The industry is eager to win back those who have been absent during the pandemic era. However, predicting the outcome of this summer movie season has proven to be perplexing and confounding. Despite the pedigree of many upcoming films, the future of the box office remains uncertain.
While the summer began on a high note with the success of Marvel and Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, subsequent films have struggled to maintain that momentum. Universal’s Fast X had a disappointing domestic showing but performed well overseas, while Disney’s live-action The Little Mermaid had a strong domestic performance but struggled internationally due to a backlash over the casting of a Black actress as Ariel.
As a result, revenue for the summer to date (May 1-June 2) is only 1.8% ahead of last year and down 14.9% from 2019, according to Comscore. While industry insiders aren’t panicking yet, The Flash’s high visibility has made studios more sensitive and hypervigilant. All eyes are now on the upcoming releases and their ability to attract audiences back to theaters.
The performance of Han Solo’s return in Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will be closely watched. The franchise, which experienced success throughout the 1980s, is attempting to win over a new generation of fans while appealing to older adults, the film’s target audience. Analysts expect the film to open in the $60 million-plus range, but its ability to surpass this mark will be telling.
Industry analyst Eric Handler notes that while tentpole films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Avatar cannot be replicated at home, mid-level movies face challenges since they can arguably be seen on streaming platforms. He also points out that the absence of late-night talk shows due to the ongoing writer’s strike has hindered movie promotion.
Despite these challenges, Hollywood remains hopeful for strong performances from upcoming films like Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part 1, Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Insidious: The Red Door. Mission: Impossible is expected to have a franchise-best opening above $65 million, while Barbie and Oppenheimer are also tracking for solid openings.
However, the summer has been notably devoid of $100 million-plus openers so far. As the season progresses, the pressure intensifies on upcoming releases to deliver substantial box office numbers. Tom Cruise, the star of Mission: Impossible, appealed to his fans to see other films like Indiana Jones and Barbie, highlighting the need for multiple films to succeed.
While there is still optimism in the industry, some insiders are growing concerned. The pressure is now on the back half of the summer to boost revenue and avoid falling behind last year’s $3.4 billion in domestic revenue. The outcome of the summer box office remains uncertain, leaving Hollywood hoping for a strong comeback in the coming weeks.
