Renowned lawyer Jeremy Hogan, known for his expertise in the Ripple vs. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) case, recently provided an in-depth analysis of the potential outcomes in the ongoing legal battle. In a tweet, Hogan outlined every possibility, along with the likelihood and timeline of each scenario.
Firstly, Hogan discussed the SEC’s option to continue with the trial targeting individual defendants, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Ripple Executive Chairman Chris Larsen. The trial is scheduled for April 21, 2024. Hogan pointed out that the SEC faces significant challenges in this path, as the judge has left the most difficult part of the case for trial. He speculated that the SEC could face a loss in the trial and potentially have its internal workings exposed. If the SEC chooses this scenario, an appeal is not expected to be filed until 2025. Even if the SEC wins the appeal, the case would likely return to Judge Analisa Torres for further legal proceedings, prolonging the resolution until June 2027. Hogan humorously assigned a 39.456% probability to this scenario.
In the second scenario, Hogan explored the possibility of the SEC settling with the individual defendants before seeking a final judgment against Ripple Labs, which would then be subject to appeal. Hogan considered this to be the SEC’s best option, as it would expedite the journey to the appellate court and save resources. However, he expressed doubts about the SEC’s willingness to choose this path. After the settlements, the focus would shift to “remedies” litigation, a process that Hogan estimated would last until August 14, 2026. He assigned a probability of 32.113% to this scenario.
The third scenario discussed by Hogan was a comprehensive settlement involving both Ripple and the individual defendants. Hogan mentioned the possibility of a mandated conference by the judge, but he noted that the SEC has shown little desire to compromise so far. Settlement was described as a good option for the SEC, allowing them to claim another victory and collect a substantial settlement. Hogan estimated the probability of this scenario at 18.987%.
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Hogan also acknowledged the potential for unforeseen events, assigning a 8.675% probability to a completely unpredictable outcome.
Overall, Hogan emphasized that the SEC now faces limited favorable options and a shifted power balance. The case has become more complex, and the SEC’s choices may have unintended consequences.
As of now, XRP is trading at $0.5168.
In conclusion, Hogan’s detailed breakdown provides insights into the potential paths and outcomes of the Ripple vs. SEC case. While the future remains uncertain, Hogan’s analysis sheds light on the complex dynamics at play and the challenges faced by the SEC.
