The summer box office has exploded with the release of Greta Gerwig’s female-led film “Barbie.” The movie had an impressive opening day, bringing in $70.5 million on Friday, including $22.3 million from preview screenings. Early predictions indicate that the Warner Bros. film could reach a historic $155 million or more in its domestic opening weekend, a milestone typically reserved for male-driven superhero films or well-known intellectual properties like the final Harry Potter movie. Some projections even suggest the movie could exceed $160 million, but Warner Bros. is being cautious and sticking with a $150 million estimate in case Saturday’s attendance isn’t as strong.
“Barbie,” which is based on the iconic fashion doll from Mattel, is also expected to perform exceptionally well in international markets, with projections of an international debut as high as $120 million.
In addition to its domestic success, “Barbie” is set to record several other achievements. It is on track to become the highest-grossing domestic opening for a film directed solely by a woman, surpassing Patty Jenkins’ “Wonder Woman,” which opened with $103.3 million in 2017. “Barbie” is also expected to have the highest opening of any film released in 2023 so far, surpassing “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” ($146.3 million). Other notable 2023 releases include “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” ($120.7 million), “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” ($118.4 million), and “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” ($106.9 million). These numbers are significant as many recent releases have struggled to surpass the $100 million mark.
Opposite “Barbie” at the box office is Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” another highly anticipated film. Despite the competition, “Oppenheimer” is also performing above expectations. The historical drama about J. Robert Oppenheimer and the making of the atomic bomb earned $33 million on Friday, projected to reach $77 million for its opening weekend. This would rank as Nolan’s third-biggest domestic debut, behind “The Dark Knight Rises” ($160.9 million) and “The Dark Knight” ($158.4 million), without adjusting for inflation. It would also make “Oppenheimer” the third-biggest opening for a biographical film in North America, following “American Sniper” ($89.3 million), “The Passion of the Christ” ($83.8 million), and “Straight Outta Compton” ($60.2 million).
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Before the weekend, industry projections suggested that “Oppenheimer” would open with around $50 million, while “Barbie” was expected to reach $90 million to $110 million. The combined success of these two films, dubbed “Barbenheimer,” is a significant boost for the movie industry, which is still recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This weekend will mark the first time in history that two films have earned over $100 million and $50 million, respectively, in a three-day weekend.
The record-breaking box office performance of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” provides a welcome respite from the ongoing writers and actors strike, which has halted production in Hollywood. Theater owners are concerned that if actors cannot promote their films, studios may delay or reschedule their fall and winter releases. However, the success of these two films suggests that audiences are eager to return to theaters and support new releases.
Both “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” have been well-received by audiences, with both films earning A CinemaScores. Critics’ scores on Rotten Tomatoes are also positive, with “Barbie” scoring 90% and “Oppenheimer” scoring 93%.
The National Association of Theater Owners conducted a survey among its members, revealing that 200,000 moviegoers in the U.S. have purchased tickets for a double feature of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.” It is unclear how many of these customers belong to loyalty clubs or receive discounted or free tickets.
The success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” has made it challenging for Tom Cruise’s “Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One” to maintain its dominance at the box office. Despite positive reviews, “Mission: Impossible” is projected to experience a drop of over 55% in its second weekend, earning between $20 million and $21 million. Paramount’s film is facing competition not only from “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” but also from the independent film “Sound of Freedom,” which has been performing strongly since its release. “Sound of Freedom” is expected to earn $20 million or more in its third weekend after crossing the $100 million mark domestically last weekend.
The success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” highlights the impact of premium formats like IMAX and PLF screens on box office performance. “Oppenheimer” claimed IMAX screens, potentially taking away valuable revenue from “Mission: Impossible,” while both new releases also competed for premium large format screens.
“Sound of Freedom,” an independent film from Angel Studios, continues to attract audiences and has proven to be a sleeper hit. The faith-based political thriller stars Jim Caviezel and tells the story of Tim Ballard, a real-life former agent for the Department of Homeland Security who fought child traffickers. Despite discussions on QAnon message boards, Angel Studios insists the film is not a QAnon movie. Caviezel’s appearance at a QAnon convention in 2021, where he referenced the QAnon slogan, has led to associations between him and the controversial conspiracy theory.
As the weekend continues, box office estimates are still being updated to account for the performances of “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer,” and other films. However, this weekend is already proving to be one of the biggest in terms of revenue, with comparisons being made to the success of “Avengers: Endgame” in previous years.
