Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach almost $150,000 during its next four-year halving cycle, according to Pantera Capital. In their recent Blockchain Letter released on August 22nd, Pantera Capital executives reaffirmed their bullish BTC price predictions for 2024 and beyond.
Pantera Capital argues that Bitcoin’s price performance is heavily influenced by its halving cycles, and with the next halving due within the next twelve months, the firm believes that historical trends will continue. They note that BTC/USD tends to reach a cycle bottom and top around the same time period from each block subsidy halving, which reduces the number of Bitcoin given to miners per block by 50%.
Based on historical data, the firm states, “Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward.” They also mention that post-halving rallies have averaged around 480 days, from the halving to the peak of the next bull cycle. Using this theory, Pantera Capital suggests that the 2022 bear market bottom marked the current BTC price cycle bottom.
Moving forward, Pantera believes that by the halving date in April 2024, BTC/USD could be trading at around $35,000, a milestone that is still on track to be achieved. However, the 480 days following the halving are expected to bring not only a new all-time high but much more.
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The firm makes an interesting observation about the impact of each halving on the price of Bitcoin. They note that the 2016 halving decreased the supply of new bitcoins by one-third but had exactly one-third of the price impact compared to the first halving. Similarly, the 2020 halving reduced the supply by 43% relative to the previous halving and had a price impact 23% as big. With the next halving expected to occur on April 20, 2024, and each halving reducing the new supply by almost half, Pantera suggests that Bitcoin could rise to $35,000 before the halving and reach $148,000 afterward, based on historical patterns.
According to this prediction, Bitcoin is projected to reach its next all-time high by July 2025, which is 480 days from the April 2024 halving. Pantera Capital supports their analysis with a visual representation of Bitcoin halving characteristics, emphasizing the cycle bottoms and tops.
Pantera Capital is not the only firm predicting six-figure BTC price highs in the future. There are other optimistic forecasts based on metrics such as Bitcoin’s “Lowest Price Forward,” which suggests that BTC/USD could surpass $100,000 by 2026. However, some experts believe that $100,000 is also possible but may not be reached until after next year’s halving.
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. As with any investment or trading move, there is always risk involved, and it is essential for readers to conduct their own research before making any decisions.
In conclusion, Pantera Capital believes that Bitcoin will reach nearly $150,000 during its next four-year halving cycle. Their analysis is based on historical trends and the impact of halvings on BTC price. Other predictions also suggest six-figure highs for Bitcoin in the future. However, it is crucial for investors and traders to conduct their own research and evaluate the risks involved.
