Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to reach $35,000 by the end of 2023, according to veteran analyst Filbfilb. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Filbfilb, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, shared his BTC price predictions that would resonate with long-term holders.
While Bitcoin faces various obstacles in its current uptrend, including the ongoing Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) controversy and the different macroeconomic environment compared to previous years, Filbfilb believes that the April 2024 block subsidy halving will have a positive impact on BTC price performance. He anticipates that BTC/USD could potentially reach $46,000 by that time, although he also expects some losses to occur before that.
When asked about the long-term floor for Bitcoin, Filbfilb mentioned that it would depend on the circumstances. He referred to the lows of around $16,000 seen following the FTX crash and stated that avoiding a black swan event, the low $20,000 range seems likely.
Regarding price behavior in the fourth quarter, Filbfilb believes that miners and smart money will “buy the rumor” on the halving, leading to a reversal in price behavior. He pointed out that in previous cycles, there has been a contraction of newly emitted supply to the market before the halving, accompanied by increased speculative demand. Filbfilb expects this dynamic to repeat.
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Discussing the hash rate versus price correlation, Filbfilb admitted that he has not been able to identify a direct connection between the two.
Filbfilb highlighted a notable difference in BTC price action this year compared to other pre-halving years—the failure to break the 100-week moving average. He explained that in the past, this breaking point confirmed the bull market to some extent. However, he mentioned that the timing of the uptick from the 2022 lows aligns with previous patterns.
In terms of the recent Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit, Filbfilb expressed his view that the news is significant. He noted that the SEC seems to have a policy of delaying ETF approvals extensively. However, considering the increasing number of filings for ETFs from institutional asset managers like BlackRock, Filbfilb believes that it is a matter of “when” rather than “if” a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved.
Filbfilb referred to U.S. inflation as the “elephant in the room” and discussed its potential impact on Bitcoin post-halving in 2024. He explained that high inflation and interest rates decrease retail’s disposable income, reducing the allocation of capital towards riskier assets like Bitcoin.
When asked about his preferred metrics for tracking BTC’s price, Filbfilb mentioned that he focuses on directional price momentum, alongside market positioning indicators like long/short ratios, funding rates, and open interest.
In terms of price targets, Filbfilb expects Bitcoin to reach around $35,000 by the end of the year, assuming no black swan event. He also sees the possibility of it reaching as high as $46,000 before the 2024 halving.
Moving on to altcoins, Filbfilb commented on the collapse of the NFT market, stating that he is unsurprised. While he sees some utility in certain forms of NFTs, such as for ticketing and music applications, he never understood the significantly high prices of some NFT artworks.
As for altcoins in the new cycle, Filbfilb’s focus is primarily on Bitcoin. He expects altcoins to make their moves after the halving, but he anticipates XRP and Dogecoin to perform well. He mentioned XRP’s legal case with the SEC and the potential integration of crypto into “X” by Elon Musk as contributing factors for their success.
In conclusion, Filbfilb’s analysis and predictions suggest that Bitcoin has the potential to reach $35,000 by the end of 2023, with the possibility of it reaching $46,000 before the 2024 halving. He highlights the importance of considering various factors, such as black swan events, inflation, and market dynamics when analyzing Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
