Bitcoin’s volatility has experienced a recent surge, with the price initially soaring after Grayscale won a victory over the SEC. However, this excitement was quickly dampened by news of the SEC delaying the decision on several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. Over the past few days, news surrounding Bitcoin ETFs has been the main catalyst for market movement.
Despite the recent setbacks, Bloomberg ETF analysts are optimistic about the potential approval of ETFs by the regulator in 2023. Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas raised the approval probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF from 65% to 75% in an August 30th post on X (formerly Twitter).
Looking ahead, the bulls may face an uphill battle in the near term as September historically favors the bears. CoinGlass data reveals that Bitcoin has seen negative returns in September for the past six years, leaving many wondering if this trend will continue in 2023.
Bitcoin’s weakness has had a ripple effect on major altcoins, which are approaching their strong support levels. The big question now is whether the decline will extend further or if a bounce is imminent.
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Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to gain further insight.
Bitcoin Price Analysis:
Bitcoin failed to defend the 20-day EMA of $26,947 on August 31st, leading to a sell-off that pushed the price below the breakout level of $26,833. The BTC/USDT pair has been oscillating within a large range between $24,800 and $31,000, with traders typically buying the dips to the support and selling near the resistance. Therefore, the bulls are expected to defend $24,800, while a sustained break below this level may result in a fall to $19,500.
Ether Price Analysis:
Ether’s rebound from the strong support at $1,626 was short-lived, indicating that bears are still active at higher levels. If they succeed in pulling the price below the $1,626 to $1,550 support zone, it will signal the beginning of a new downtrend. The ETH/USDT pair could then drop to the next significant support at $1,368. However, if the bulls manage to rebound sharply from the current level, it would indicate strong defense of the support and could push the price towards the 20-day EMA ($1,702) and subsequently to $1,745.
BNB Price Analysis:
BNB’s recovery was halted at the 50-day SMA of $234 on August 29th, with bears subsequently pushing the price below the crucial support level at $220 on August 31st. The moving averages are sloping down, and the RSI is in negative territory, highlighting the bears’ advantage. They will now attempt to sink the price to the psychological support at $200, and if this level is breached, the next major support stands at $183. On the other hand, the bulls need to push the price back above the 20-day EMA ($222) to start a relief rally.
XRP Price Analysis:
XRP’s long tail on August 31st’s candlestick indicates support at $0.50, but subsequent price action suggests that bears are maintaining pressure. If the price drops below $0.50, it will confirm bear control, potentially leading to a downward move towards the formidable support at $0.41. The bulls are likely to defend this level, which could result in the XRP/USDT pair remaining range-bound between $0.41 and $0.56. A rebound from $0.50 would signal a rally attempt towards $0.56, with further resistance at $0.63 and $0.73.
Cardano Price Analysis:
Cardano has been trading within a range between $0.24 and $0.28, with a failed attempt to break out above the range on August 29th. The selling pressure intensified, leading to a break below the uptrend line on August 31st. The bears will now aim to sink the ADA/USDT pair below the vital support at $0.24, and if successful, the price could continue to consolidate within the range or drop further to $0.22 and eventually $0.20.
Dogecoin Price Analysis:
Dogecoin is struggling to start a recovery, indicating waning demand at higher levels. The DOGE/USDT pair could dip to the solid support at $0.06, which buyers are expected to fiercely defend. A break below this level would resume the downtrend, potentially pushing the pair towards $0.055 and $0.05. On the other hand, a rebound from $0.06 would suggest strong buying interest, with bulls attempting to overcome the 20-day EMA and potentially reaching $0.08.
Solana Price Analysis:
Solana remains under bear control, with the price returning from the 20-day EMA ($21.37) on August 30th. The coin has now reached a critical support level at $19.35, with the 20-day EMA sloping down and the RSI in the negative zone. To initiate a recovery, bulls must quickly push and sustain the price above the overhead resistance at $22.30, potentially leading to a surge towards $26. Conversely, a break below $19.35 could intensify selling pressure, pushing the price lower.
Toncoin Price Analysis:
Toncoin is currently in a strong uptrend, with the bulls refusing to book profits despite a minor resistance near $1.77. If buyers manage to scale the pattern target of $1.91, the uptrend could continue towards $2.38. However, a drop below $1.66 would suggest aggressive selling at higher levels, potentially sinking the pair to the breakout level at $1.53.
Polkadot Price Analysis:
Polkadot turned down from the 20-day EMA ($4.56) on August 30th, indicating negative sentiment and a willingness by traders to sell on rallies. The DOT/USDT pair has now dropped to a crucial support level at $4.22, which is expected to be a battleground between bulls and bears. A break below $4.22 could trigger further selling, potentially pushing the pair towards $4. On the other hand, sustained trading above the 20-day EMA could result in a surge towards the overhead resistance at $5.
Polygon Price Analysis:
Polygon failed to maintain above the 20-day EMA ($0.58) on August 29th, leading to profit-booking from short-term traders. The bears held their ground as the bulls attempted to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on August 30th and 31st. The bears will now try to strengthen their position by breaking the immediate support at $0.53. If they succeed, it could trigger a deeper fall. However, if the support holds, the price may remain range-bound between $0.53 and $0.56.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s recent volatility has affected the broader cryptocurrency market, with major altcoins experiencing declines. The outlook for the market largely depends on the SEC’s decision regarding Bitcoin ETFs. Traders and investors will closely monitor regulatory developments and market trends to gauge potential price movements in the coming months.
