The success of Barbie and Oppenheimer at the box office has provided a much-needed boost for Hollywood and theater owners. During the July 21-23 weekend, domestic box office revenue reached $311.1 million, making it the fourth biggest weekend in history. This was mainly due to Barbie, which earned a staggering $162 million, and Oppenheimer, which brought in $80.4 million. Both films exceeded expectations, with Barbie becoming the first movie to open with over $100 million and Oppenheimer earning more than $50 million on its opening weekend.
However, despite this success, there are concerns that it may be the last major cinematic event of 2023 if the ongoing actors and writers strikes are not resolved soon. The box office ecosystem is still fragile and has not fully recovered to pre-COVID levels. Before the release of Barbie and Oppenheimer, the domestic summer box office was down 7 percent compared to the same period in 2022. While the recent weekend helped bring the overall revenue up by 1.1 percent, it is still down nearly 19 percent from 2019. In addition, summer 2023 is down 14.4 percent compared to the same period in 2019.
The ongoing strikes have created uncertainty among theater owners, who are worried that the major studios may decide to relocate their fall and winter tentpole films. The actors’ strike prevents them from promoting any film produced by members of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, including major legacy studios, streaming platforms, and specialty divisions. This poses a significant challenge for cinemas, as the loss of big movies could have disastrous consequences for their survival. However, there are concerns that not everyone at the negotiation table fully understands the potential impact of these strikes, and some studios may not prioritize the box office if they have other agendas or platforms that don’t rely on theatrical releases.
While most major studios are not expected to make immediate decisions regarding their upcoming films, there are exceptions. MGM’s Challengers, directed by Luca Guadagnino and starring Zendaya, has already pulled out of the Venice Film Festival and delayed its release until 2024 due to the actors’ strike. Apple’s Killers of the Flower Moon, directed by Martin Scorsese and starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone, and Robert De Niro, is still set to open on October 20 and is not expected to be affected by the strike. However, other movies scheduled for release in November and December may face challenges, especially if last-minute voiceover work or minor reshoots are required. Additionally, the inability of stars to promote these films could also impact their success at the box office.
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Warner Bros., the home of Barbie, has several big event pictures waiting to be released. While no decisions have been made regarding the status of films like Dune: Part Two, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, and The Color Purple, there is growing concern that the strikes may force studios to reconsider their release plans. Independent movies distributed by non-AMPTP members may receive waivers from SAG-AFTRA, but that doesn’t help films from studios like Sony Classics, Searchlight, or Focus Features. Some studios have already started to make adjustments, with Searchlight relocating the limited release of Poor Things from September to December and Focus considering a possible delay for Drive-Away Dolls.
The current situation has left many cinema owners worried about the future. While there is no immediate resolution in sight, there is hope that more vocal support from actors who want awards may help move negotiations forward. For exhibitors, the success of Barbenheimer could be short-lived if the fall and winter tentpole films, which have the potential to become major cinematic events, are pushed back or postponed. Creatives behind and in front of the camera play a crucial role in promoting these films, and any delays or changes to release plans could have a significant impact on the box office.
At this point, it is uncertain whether the strikes will be resolved in time to prevent further disruptions to the industry. Cinema owners, studios, and creatives are all anxiously waiting for a resolution to ensure the continued success and survival of the box office.
